Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by June 30 2026?

Resolves YES iff the exact underlying Polymarket binary market resolves YES via Polymarket's official UMA resolution flow. Resolves NO iff that Polymarket market resolves NO. If Polymarket resolution is ambiguous, disputed, 50/50, or unavailable, this market remains pending for admin review. Polymarket criteria excerpt: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield. Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution. Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia. The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.